The Nemenoff Report 11/07/19

Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1’11 lower at 157’21, 10 yr. Notes 0’17.5 lower at 128’25 and 5 yr. Notes 0’09.25 lower at 118’12.25. Treasuries have broken overnight as trade talks with China has improved as both sides now appear likely to ‘roll back’ some of their tariffs. This has put the market back in risk on territory as evidenced by the new  record highs in the Dow Jones and S&P indices. We tried the long side at the 158’05-158’12 support level only to take a 10-15 point loss as we were stopped out. The next level of support is now the 153’23 area. Of note: The yield curve continues to widen as the yield has risen to 5 basis points premium the 5 yr. over the 2 yr. notes and the 10 Yr. about 23 points over the 2 yr. I am now a seller on rallies above 159’28 in the or 10 yr. notes if Bonds trade at 160’00.

Grains: Dec. Corn is 0’4 higher at 379’2, Jan. Beans 4’2 higher at 9931’6 and Dec. Wheat 2’0 higher at 518’6. Corn is about 10’0 lower for the week, Beans near steady and Wheat somewhat higher. I will note the lackluster performance given the prospect of increased exports once a trade deal s in place. I will also note that Corn is approaching support in the low 360s-hi8gh350s. If tomorrows Crop Production Report is negative I will be willing to buy Dec. Corn in the support range.

Cattle: Dec. Cattle is higher for the week topping out just above the 120.0 level as Feeder cattle has set back over the last few sessions. I still feel Dec. Live Cattle has too large a premium over cash and remain short with a considerable loss. I am looking to cover below 116.00.

Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 5 cents lower at 17.55 and 46 cents lower from last week’s 18.01. A stronger Dollar and lower Bond (higher % rate) markets have pressured the metals over the last few sessions I am staying long and note we are well above yesterdays 17.36 low.

S&P’s: Once again S&P’s are on new highs currently trading 12.25 higher at 3087.75. Support has moved up to 30.57. Resistance for short-term trades is the overnight high of 3092.50. Treat as a trading affair and use close stops.

Currencies: As of this writing the Dec. Euro is 8 higher at 1.11045, the Yen 20 lower at 0.91875, the Pound 53 lower at 1.2816 and the Dollar Index .004 lower at 97.764. I still like the Pound and Euro on breaks and feel that once a Brexit deal is resolved these markets will rally.

Regards,
Marc